Take the Bus, if it Runs on Hydrogen!

by James S. Cannon, President, Energy Futures, Inc.

Over the past decade, hydrogen technology has made startling advances in a host of transportation applications from golf carts to hypersonic aircraft. Buses, however, stand out as the transportation mode where hydrogen has made the most inroads. The recent 8th Annual U.S. Hydrogen Meeting again highlighted developments in the bus sector with presentations about the Chicago [Illinois, U.S.A.] fuel cell bus project, the hydrogen hybrid-electric bus in Georgia [U.S.A.], and the [U.S.] federal fuel cell bus programs.

Technological advancement is the main factor pushing hydrogen buses toward the Holy Grail of commercialization. There is another factor, however, that is simultaneously pulling hydrogen toward the bus market. Buses are where alternative fuels have already broken the monopoly control of oil-derived fuels. It is open season for bus purchasers—the old rules no longer apply—and hydrogen stands only to gain from this new competitive arena.

The alternative-fuel bus market has soared in the 1990s. From just 210 five years ago, the number of operating alternative-fuel buses now exceeds 1,500 and will reach 2,838 when pending orders for new buses are completed. While the total bus population has remained static, alternative-fuel buses have increased 1,251%.

Alternative-Fuel Buses in the U.S.A.

Fuel 1992
Fleet		 1996 Fleet Plus
Pending Orders		 Percent
Growth
Natural Gas 116 2,267 1,854%
Methanol 61 64 5%
Ethanol 5 409 8,080%
Propane 15 47 213%
Electric 13 51 292%
All Alternative-Fuel Buses 210 2,838 1,251%
All Buses 51,500 51,500 0.0%
Source: American Public Transit Association fleet inventories

Operating alternative-fuel buses and buses on order represent 4.4% of the urban transit bus fleet in the U.S.A. This market share will undoubtedly grow. In 1996, more than 20% of the orders for new buses specified an alternative fuel, primarily natural gas. Alternative-fuel bus technology is gaining acceptance among bus operators. These buses work well and there are now a number of manufacturers selling fully warranted products.

The success in the bus market contrasts with the stubborn refusal of the gasoline-powered passenger vehicle market to yield even a percentage point to alternative fuels. Only 0.2% of the 155 million automobiles on the roads are powered by alternative fuels, despite the many alternative-fuel use mandates and incentives now part of federal and state law.

Buses are an ideal application for hydrogen technology. Hydrogen buses are nearly pollution-free, while a diesel engine particulate control technology widely adopted by the bus industry, ironically called the trap, has failed to meet tighter bus emission standards imposed in 1991. The use of traps peaked in 1994 at 2,012 buses, but it has dropped since then to about 1,200.

Environmental pressure in favor of alternative-fuel buses is likely to increase. In January 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed public health standards limiting concentrations of fine particulate matter in the air. Because urban buses operate in densely populated areas, reducing bus pollution is a particularly important strategy to protect public health.

The synergies between hydrogen and natural gas, which fuels 80% of the alternative-fuel bus fleet, should help hydrogen gain credibility in the bus market. The growing interest in electric buses also should help hydrogen hybrids and fuel cells. There are still many institutional barriers that must be hurdled, however, before a market presence of alternative-fuel buses can be assured. One key uncertainty today is the fate of friendly programs in the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act being reauthorized by [U.S.] Congress this year. When the U.S. Hydrogen Meeting was getting underway in March, a Workshop on Incentives for Advanced Transit buses, hosted by the Breakthrough Technologies Institute, was meeting across town and grappling with the obstacles to innovation in the bus market. The hydrogen community would do well to expand its commitment of time and resources to help the many organizations which are working hard to promote the commercialization of advanced bus technologies.

©1997. All Rights Reserved. A Publication of the National Hydrogen Association.
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