The Global Forum on Personal Transportation
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by Rober Mauro, Technical and Policy Advisor to the NHA Board
A Global Forum on Personal Transportation was held 11-12 November 2002 in Dearborn Michigan, U.S.A. The purpose of the meeting was to develop initiatives for the G8 Conference of Energy Ministers that would be held in Davos, Switzerland, early next year.
After introductory remarks, the first morning of the meeting was devoted to three presentations. The first was by Rob Routs, U.S. President and Country Chairman of Shell Oil Company. He discussed Shell’s Scenario Planning for 2050, which included setting the social and economic context for his discussion. He then identified three fundamental drivers in his future. The drivers were fossil energy research, new technology, and social and personal priorities. In Shell’s view, coal will not be scarce in this time frame. Oil production may peak by 2025, but production growth could be extended through 2040 using unconventional sources. Natural gas availability is more uncertain and depends on development in remote locations.
The “disruptive” new technologies Routs identified were photovoltaics and hydrogen fuel cells. The social and personal priorities influence energy choices. The government’s desire for energy self-sufficiency may ultimately lead to a desire for renewable energy sources. On a personal level, environmental and lifestyle concerns will influence the development of energy systems. Greenhouse gas reductions will influence the energy systems that are developed, but will not determine them. “The correct energy choices are rarely obvious,” said Routs.
Two scenarios were postulated in the presentation trends extrapolated. One was an extrapolation of existing thinking, “Dynamics as Usual.” The other was more revolutionary, “The Spirit of the Coming Age.”
Dynamics As Usual
Dynamics as usual assumes that clean, secure, and sustainable energy drives the development of the future energy system. The resulting system is more diverse and complex than the current system and marked by intense competition among the various choices. Through the first two decades, gas is the dominant energy form. Photovoltaics expand due to lower prices driven by massive increases in production capacity at the end of this decade. Interest in fuel cells over this time period is weak because of the lack of hydrogen infrastructure. Wind, although showing promise, is rejected in a large scale by the rural communities affected. India and China support widespread use of hydro and nuclear power. In 2030, PV stagnates, as does natural gas production even augmented by LNG. By 2040, oil becomes scarce and it is augmented by biofuels and greatly increased vehicle efficiencies. Between 2025 and 2050, a new generation of photovoltaics based on organic thin film technology and improved energy storage emerge, lowering costs. This allows renewables to provide a third of the global primary energy supply by 2050.
The Spirit of the Coming Age
The basic premise of “The Spirit of the Coming Age” is that fuel cell vehicles fit the mood of the society. Auto companies would prefer methanol as the vehicle fuel, but energy companies are not interested in methanol because of the associated health risks. The constraint in this scenario is the lack of a refueling infrastructure. This issue is solved by developing “fuel in a box” building on storage for small-scale applications. Consumers have no idea what is in the box; effectively, they buy a “six pack of fuel” to travel 300 miles.
Fuel cells’ first commercial applications are in stationary power businesses that require high levels of reliability. This market drives the cost of fuel cells down to $500/kW. Manufacturers of home appliances become major manufacturers and distributors of combined heat and power fuel cells for commercial and residential buildings. Power is supplemented by use of vehicle docking stations to power energy to homes and businesses.
In developed countries, by 2025, 25 percent of the vehicle fleet is fuel cell-powered. Ultimately, the transition in fuel storage from liquid to solid hydrogen goes unnoticed after 2025. After 2025, China embarks on a major effort to convert coal to hydrogen and natural gas with carbon sequestration. In this scenario, oil is really not needed to effect the transition. Beyond 2030, the shift is to hydrogen and efforts are made to produce it from a variety of sources. The long-term dominant methods of production are large-scale renewable and nuclear power used with electrolysis. Hydrogen is initially transported in gas grids until dedicated pipelines are justified.
The talk concluded by pointing out five common elements in the presentation.
Scenario info is at www.shell.com.
Vehicles in Japan
Dr. Hisashi Ishitani, of the Graduate School of Science and Technology at Keio University, spoke on vehicles in Japan. He pointed out that HEVs are succeeding commercially while EVs are failing. The barriers faced by fuel cell vehicles in Japan are the same ones that U.S. automakers face.
The strategy of fuel cell R&D; in Japan is set by METI. That strategy has three parts: technical validation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2005, pilot-scale demonstrations from 2005 to 2010, and commercial introduction by 2010. By 2010, the fuel cell will have to operate for 5,000 hours, have a power density of 1.3 kW/kg, have an efficiency of 65 percent HHV or 55 percent LHV, and cost 4,000 yen per kW. JHFC has been formed to carry out this activity. The organization is promoting the development of codes and standards along with worldwide regulations.
A Vision for Sustainable Mobility
The final morning speaker was Mr. Tom Gottschalk, Mobility Panel Co-Chair of World Business Council for Sustainable Development. His presentation was primarily about the progress that the Mobility Panel has made in developing a vision for sustainable mobility in 2030.
Vehicle ownership is growing. Today, 12 percent of the global population have vehicles; by 2030, 15 percent of a larger global population will have vehicles. The auto industry provides industrial nations with jobs. In the United States, 14 million jobs are linked to the vehicle industry and, in the European Union, that number is 12 million. The EU and U.S. vehicle industries together spend $30 billion a year on research.
Hydrogen is the fuel of choice for the long term. This is not necessarily driven by climate change, but by customer convenience. The issues today are hydrogen storage, hydrogen production, hydrogen infrastructure, and fuel cell cost. The bridging strategy is with reformers.
It should be noted that 80 percent of vehicles in India are two- and three-wheelers. There is a large third world market for fuel cell powered bicycles (100 million units per year). Japan is planning to have 50,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2010. Congestion is the major issues for regions with large population. Public Transit is needed for Japan and the Third World. The basic personal mobility issues for the developed world are:
The report to address these issues is due out in December 2003.
Codes and Standards Group
After presentations by J.T. Battenberg, III, CEO of Delphi Corporation, and Spencer Abraham, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), we met in Discussion Groups. In the Codes and Standards Group, after brainstorming, discussion, and prioritization, we produced four initiatives:
A team was assembled around each of these questions to flesh out the details of each of the four initiatives. The questions that each team was asked to address were:
After completing this activity, we adjourned for the dinner, at which the initiatives for each group were briefly presented.
The next morning, each team presented their action plans to their respective sessions and developed viewgraph presentations for each of the four initiatives.
At 11 a.m., all groups assembled for six presentations on the initiatives developed by each of the groups. The boldest initiative was presented by the fuel cell group, which asked the Secretary to propose to the G8 Energy Ministers that they commit to a global hydrogen and fuel cell infrastructure by 2020. It was proposed that, to accomplish this purpose, $10 billion be committed to R&D; over the next 10 years and that, by 2008, each of the G8 countries have 10,000 vehicles each in operation.
Recommendations, Observations
After lunch—during which Doug Rothwell, President and CEO of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, spoke—the group reconvened to listen to Tom Gross of DOE present recommendations and observations on the initiatives. He suggested several that could move forward, including reaching international agreement on a common certification process for vehicles and implementing it.
During follow-up discussion, there was dissatisfaction expressed about the timid nature of the initiatives that DOE presented. Following that exchange, David Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at DOE, indicated that he would accept all the initiatives on behalf of the Secretary. He said that DOE would carefully review all initiatives and select several that the Secretary would propose for adoption. In addition, all the initiatives would be compiled in booklet that would be distributed to the G8 Energy Ministers prior to the meeting. At the end of Mr. Garman’s comments, the meeting was adjourned.
©2002. All Rights Reserved. A Publication
of the National Hydrogen Association.
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