Energy, Transportation and Climate Change Converge at Policy Confab
NHA Home • NHA News Index

The theme this year was climate change, but the conference subtitle could have read, "multidimensional calamity looming - policy leadership urgently needed." Taken individually, the bits of information may not have been new: World population, energy demand and carbon emissions are linked, and growing at alarming rates…. Greenhouse gases will take a very long time to reverse, and the longer we delay, the more serious the consequences….Even as energy demand skyrockets, especially in China and India, world oil reserves will reach their peak and available supply will start declining, potentially leading to economic consequences that many analysts are only beginning to grasp. But the new and significant element was that such a broad cross-cut of government policy makers, corporate strategists and academic researchers focused together on how these issues are connected and require innovative, coordinated actions.

The numbers are daunting.

• By 2030, the world's population will grow to 8 billion, more than 25% higher than today. By 2050, the global population will expand to 40% above today's level, with energy demand doubling or even going up three-fold.
  
  
• Between now and 2030, worldwide carbon emissions are projected to nearly double to 11 billion tons per year according to some energy company analyses. The highest portion will occur in China and India. Developing Asia alone could add as many carbon emissions by 2030 as all other regions of the world combined.
  
  
• With only 5% of the world population, the U.S. currently accounts for one-quarter of world oil demand, with two-thirds of it going to fuel our 235 million vehicles.
  
  
• We already posses an astonishing 735 vehicles for every 1,000 Americans, and that is projected to go up to 835 per 1,000 in 2030, or 325 million vehicles. The expected rate of growth in China is even more amazing: 55 million vehicles now (15 per 1,000 people), growing to 420 million in 2030 (100 per 1,000).
  
  
• Already, oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest producing countries. Most studies estimate the worldwide peak is not far away, in the range of five to 30 years.

For transportation, technology is part of the answer. Hybrids and other efficient vehicles slow, but don't end, the trend. Biofuels and other alternatives help, even as we continue the needed path towards hydrogen - first from conventional sources and increasingly from renewables. But also essential are smart land use and transportation planning which can enormously reduce energy use. Making all these pathways and strategies work in concert, and in time to avoid the train wreck ahead, takes policy actions of a type that have not yet occurred. Motivating policy makers to act for benefits that won't be realized until the future is difficult. As one participant noted, we must all be lobbyists - and that means educating opinion leaders and the public as well as government officials in countries around the world.

*****
The biennial Conference on Transportation Energy and Environmental Policy at Asilomar Conference Center in Pacific Grove, California, is organized under the auspices of the U.S. Transportation Research Board, and is hosted by Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis. Presentations and the post-conference "declaration" are at www.its.ucdavis.edu/events

© 2005. All Rights Reserved. A Publication of the National Hydrogen Association.
This material may not be reproduced in any form without permission.

NHA Home • Return to NHA News Index